Kickoff | No. 12 Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: How to watch, what to watch

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB+WAVE) — Every time Vanderbilt has come to Lexington since 2018, Kentucky has been favored by double digits.

Four games. Not once have the Wildcats won by the margin the oddsmakers expected.

In 2018, Kentucky was a 10½-point favorite and won 14-7.

In 2020, it was favored by 16½ and won 38-35.

In 2022, it was favored by 17½. Vanderbilt won 24-21.

In 2024, it was favored by 12½. Vanderbilt won 20-13.

Now comes Saturday night, with Kentucky ranked No. 12 in the nation, riding a five-game winning streak and favored by 10½ points over a Vanderbilt team that has lost four straight.

What could possibly go wrong?

Will Stein has spent the week trying to make sure the answer is nothing.

Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC) is tied for first place in the Southeastern Conference. It has won three consecutive road conference games, beaten two Top 10 opponents and become one of the more unlikely College Football Playoff contenders in America.

Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4) hasn’t won since Sept. 19. But the Commodores have won three of their last four meetings with Kentucky, including a 45-17 demolition in Nashville last season. Vanderbilt led that game 45-3 after three quarters.

That game has come up a few times in the football complex in Lexington this week.

While Kentucky has spent the past month proving it can win games nobody expected it to win, Saturday presents a different assignment. Can the Wildcats handle being the team everybody expects to win in an SEC game?

That’s a different kind of pressure. Kentucky has been able to play loose, embrace the underdog role and turn doubters into motivational material. Now the Wildcats are the ranked team. They’re the favorite. They’re the team with something to lose.

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea, meanwhile, sees an opportunity.

“I do,” Lea said Tuesday when asked whether his team’s best football would be good enough to beat Kentucky. “I do.”

He pointed to turnovers, penalties and other self-inflicted mistakes that have turned competitive games into losses.

“If we can limit penalties and protect the ball, we can win the game,” Lea said.

Stein’s message all week has been about maintaining Kentucky’s edge. But this isn’t just about avoiding complacency. Kentucky has an opportunity to reach 5-1 in SEC play, clinch a winning conference record for just the third time since 1977 and enter its open week with a place near the front of the playoff conversation.

Those are things nobody was discussing when the season began.

The Wildcats have worked their way into a position where the games are getting bigger, even when the opponents’ records aren’t particularly impressive.

Vanderbilt has already provided two expensive lessons in that department.

Kentucky would prefer not to pay for a third.

How to Watch

Who: Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

When: Saturday, Oct. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky.

TV: SEC Network. Announcers: Matt Schumacker, Aaron Murray and Taylor Davis.

Radio: UK Sports Network — Tom Leach, Jeff Piecoro and Dick Gabriel.

SiriusXM: Channels 178 or 228.

Favorite: Kentucky by 10.5 points (DraftKings).

Over/under: 52.5.

What to Watch

1. Can Kentucky handle being the favorite?

Apart from Youngstown State and South Alabama, Kentucky has built its five-game winning streak on games that were either close or that it was expected to lose.

At Texas A&M, the Wildcats proved they could win on the road. At South Carolina and against LSU, they survived overtime. At Oklahoma, they turned four interceptions into a 21-13 victory.

The formula hasn’t always been pretty, but it has been effective.

Kentucky leads the SEC with a plus-11 turnover margin. Its quarterback, Kenny Minchey, has thrown just one interception in 206 passes, a school record to start a season. The Wildcats average only 4.71 penalties per game, fewest in the conference.

These aren’t glamorous statistics. They are the kinds of statistics that win football games.

They’re also the kinds of things Vanderbilt hasn’t been doing.

Lea’s team has struggled with turnovers, penalties and explosive plays allowed. Against Arkansas last week, two interceptions contributed to a 31-21 defeat.

“A lot of ways this Kentucky team represents the solid football we want to play,” he said. “They’ve protected the ball. They’ve played clean, penalty-free, and they’re getting the credit they’re due because of the way they’ve played the game.”

There’s a certain irony in Kentucky being praised for playing the disciplined, mistake-free football that Vanderbilt wants to play. But the Wildcats have earned it. Now they have to do it without the emotional advantage of being doubted.

2. Can Kentucky’s defense make Vanderbilt’s freshman quarterback look like a freshman?

Jared Curtis may be the most talented quarterback Vanderbilt has recruited. He is also a true freshman playing in the SEC, which can be a difficult place to get an education.

Curtis has thrown for 1,242 yards and six touchdowns, but he also has seven interceptions and two lost fumbles.

He has exceptional arm strength, mobility and the ability to make throws that most quarterbacks wouldn’t attempt. Sometimes that’s a blessing. Sometimes it’s how the other team gets the football. Stein knows Curtis well. He recruited him while serving as Oregon’s offensive coordinator.

“He is a freak show,” Stein said. “He’s very young, but in terms of the tangibles of the position, being able to throw it, arm talent, running strength, he is a prototype first-round-type talent.”

Stein even compared Curtis’ playing style to that of NFL quarterback Josh Allen, particularly his combination of size, arm strength and physical running ability.

But Kentucky’s defense presents a difficult assignment.

The Wildcats intercepted Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer four times last Saturday, Kentucky’s most in a game since it picked off six against Mississippi State in 2020. Safeties Ty Bryant and Jordan Castell had two apiece.

Kentucky has become particularly dangerous when it gets pressure up front and forces quarterbacks into hurried decisions.

Curtis has enough talent to hurt the Wildcats. Vanderbilt receiver Junior Sherrill, who has 41 catches for 628 yards, gives him a legitimate downfield weapon.

But Curtis also has shown a tendency to force throws.

Against a defense that has been making a living on takeaways, that’s a dangerous habit.

3. Can Kentucky establish the running game against Vanderbilt’s biggest weakness?

Kentucky’s offense has been efficient, but the Wildcats haven’t exactly been running wild lately.

Leading rusher CJ Baxter missed last week’s Oklahoma game with an injury. Without him, Kentucky ran for just 72 net yards on 26 carries. Jason Patterson led the way with 38 yards on 12 attempts.

Baxter, who has rushed for 484 yards and eight touchdowns, was on the SEC availability report early in the week but was off it by Thursday. That means he’s available Saturday.

His return could be significant, especially against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 110th nationally in opponent expected points added per rush.

Kentucky’s offensive line, anchored by midseason All-American left tackle Lance Heard, should have an advantage.

The Wildcats don’t necessarily need to produce a series of spectacular runs. They need to establish enough of a ground game to keep Vanderbilt from concentrating on Minchey.

That would also help Kentucky control the tempo.

The Wildcats have demonstrated they can win close games. This would be a good opportunity to discover whether they can put an SEC opponent away before the final possession.

4. Can Vanderbilt turn its frustration into a competitive performance?

Four consecutive SEC losses can take a toll on a football team.

Vanderbilt began the season 3-0, including a dramatic 35-31 victory over NC State. Since then, it has lost to Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss and Arkansas. The Commodores have been outscored 142-67 in those four games.

Lea hasn’t hidden his frustration. He has talked about reconnecting with the team’s identity, playing cleaner football and restoring the confidence that helped Vanderbilt win 10 games last season.

“I think it’s human nature to pull back,” Lea said. “We’ve dropped four in a row, and like I told the team on Sunday, we only lost one on Saturday.”

Vanderbilt has some players capable of making Kentucky uncomfortable. Sherrill has caught a pass in 44 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS. Running back Sedrick Alexander has scored 26 career rushing touchdowns. Safety CJ Heard leads the Commodores with 52 tackles and has forced two fumbles.

Vanderbilt isn’t devoid of talent. It has simply been unable to put together enough clean football to beat SEC opponents.

The Commodores also have something Kentucky has been using as motivation all season: nobody expects them to win. And unlike Kentucky, they have nothing to lose in the conference race.

From the Game Notes

A rare start: Will Stein is the first Kentucky coach to begin his first season 6-1 since Alpha Brumage in 1913. He’s the first UK coach ever to start 4-1 in SEC play in his debut season.

Comeback Cats: Kentucky has won three straight games after trailing in the fourth quarter, something the Wildcats hadn’t accomplished since 2006.

A freshman record: Kentucky receiver Kenny Darby has 34 receptions for 436 yards. His reception total is the most ever by a UK freshman through seven games.

Tight end production: Willie Rodriguez leads SEC tight ends with 33 receptions. He caught two touchdown passes against Oklahoma.

The tackling machine: Kentucky linebacker Grant Godfrey made 15 tackles against Oklahoma and leads the team with 67, an average of 9.6 per game that ranks second in the SEC.

Famous alumni: Vanderbilt has an unusually distinguished collection of Kentucky connections among its alumni. Three-time Pulitzer Prize winner Robert Penn Warren and longtime Kentucky poet laureate Jesse Stuart both attended Vanderbilt. So did Kentucky native and country music superstar Chris Stapleton, who attended but did not graduate, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

That’s quite a lineup. Two literary giants, one of the biggest voices in country music and a sitting governor.

Crawford’s Pick

Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 17

There’s a temptation to call this a trap game, but I’m not sure that description fits.

A trap generally requires a team to be looking past its opponent. Kentucky has been reminded all week that Vanderbilt has embarrassed it repeatedly, including last season.

The Wildcats have too many players who remember those losses, and too much at stake, to assume they can simply show up and win.

Vanderbilt’s record is misleading in one respect. The Commodores have played a difficult SEC schedule and have enough talent to cause problems. But Kentucky is the better team, particularly along the offensive line, at quarterback and in the secondary. And Baxter’s return gives Kentucky an opportunity to establish the running game and control the game without needing another fourth-quarter rescue mission.

Stein has said his team hasn’t played a complete game yet.

Maybe Saturday is the night.